Dashboard: 31 April 2022

The South African, Kenyan and Ghanaian markets continue to underwhelm, returning negatively over the month in real local currency terms. Overall, Emerging Markets have struggled over the year, indicative of the wide spread effects of the Russia-Ukraine war.

South African Markets (ZAR)

Latest value Last mo. 3 mos. 1 yr 3 yrs ann. 5 yrs ann.
JSE ALL SHARE  72438,25  -4,1%  -2,5%  8,2%  7,4%  6,1%
JSE Volatility Index (% increase)  25,1  11,3%  18,8%  14%  17,6%  11,7%
ALBI  823,76  -1,7%  -0,7%  8,4%  7,5%  8,2%
Repo Rate (% increase)  4,25%  0%  6,3%  21,4%  -14,3%  -9,5%

South African Market Cumulative Performance

South African Yield Curve

Offshore Markets*

Latest value Last mo. 3 mos. 1 year 3 yrs ann. 5 yrs ann.
FTSE All World Index  431,32  -8%  -8,8%  -6,8%  7,6%  7,5%
FTSE Emerging Market Index  548,18  -5,5%  -10,4%  -17,1%  0,7%  2,2%
All Share Index (Kenya)  150,17  -3,6%  -8%  -11,2%  -1,5%  2,4%
All Share Index (Zambia)  6924,34  0,6%  14,5%  67,1%  8,3%  8,7%
All Share Index (Nigeria)  49638,94  5,7%  6,5%  24,6%  19,4%  14%
All Share Index (Mauritius)  2294,15  4,4%  7,4%  38,7%  2,3%  2,6%
Composite Index (Ghana)  2691,53  -1,9%  -2,7%  5,1%  5,2%  7,3%

Inflation**

Latest value Last mo. 3 mos. 1 year 3 yrs ann. 5 yrs ann.
CPI (ZAR)  178,86  1%  1,6%  5,3%  4,2%  4,3%
CPI (Kenya)  122,17  1,7%  3%  6,5%  5,1%  5,1%
CPI (Zambia)  356,02  0,7%  3,2%  11,5%  16,5%  12,9%
CPI (Nigeria)  431,8  1,7%  3,4%  14,8%  15,1%  13,8%
CPI (Mauritius)  120,13  2,1%  4,5%  10,2%  4,8%  3,7%
CPI (Ghana)  148,8  4%  6,5%  17,6%  11,3%  10,6%

Currencies (ZAR)

Latest value Last mo. 3 mos. 1 year 3 yrs ann. 5 yrs ann.
GBP  19,88  3,4%  -4%  -0,8%  2,1%  2,8%
USD  15,81  8,2%  2,8%  9,1%  3,4%  3,4%
EUR  16,69  3,2%  -3,5%  -4,3%  1,3%  2,7%
MUR  0,37  13,3%  3,7%  1,5%  -3,9%  -1%
KES  0,14  7,5%  0,8%  1,6%  -1,1%  1,1%
ZMW  0,93  15,1%  9%  42,9%  -6,2%  -8,3%
GHS  2,17  8,2%  -14,2%  -14%  -8,3%  -7,5%
NGN  0,04  8,3%  2,9%  0,1%  -6,6%  -2,8%

African Stock Exchanges’ Cum. Performance

Rand Exchange Rate

* Indices are all reflected in their respective local currencies. FTSE Indices are quoted in USD. Data Source: Thomson Reuters
** CPI is lagged by one month

Commentary

Following a strong start to the year, with a Q1 real return of 7.8%, the Zambian market was down over the month in real local currency terms. The Nigerian market on the other hand has sustained its favourable real performance in local currency terms into Q2. The South African, Kenyan and Ghanaian markets continue to underwhelm, returning negatively over the month in real local currency terms. Overall, Emerging Markets have struggled over the year, indicative of the widespread effects of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Inflation rates continued their upward trend for all countries considered. Over 5 years, inflation rates are higher than the respective market indices (apart from South Africa), which is indicative of negative real returns.

Having strengthened against all currencies considered during Q1 of 2022, the Rand lost ground against all currencies considered over the last month.

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Craig Falconer
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Kirchual Sauls
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Legal Disclaimer: This document is intended for general information purposes only and should not be construed as advice or opinions on any specific facts or circumstances. The comments in this summary are based upon QED Actuaries & Consultants’ preliminary analysis of publicly available information. The content of this document is made available on an “as is” basis, without warranty of any kind. QED Actuaries & Consultants disclaims any legal liability to any person or organization for loss or damage caused by or resulting from any reliance placed on this content. QED Actuaries & Consultants reserves all rights to the content of this document.
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