Dashboard: 31 January 2022

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has increased the repo rate by a further 25 bps following a 25 bps increase in November 2021. South African inflation ended last year at the higher end of the SARB’s target range of 3 -6%. The subsequent rate hikes are an effort to return inflation to the mid-point of the target range.

South African Markets (ZAR)

Latest value Last mo. 3 mos. 1 yr 3 yrs ann. 5 yrs ann.
JSE ALL SHARE  74 304,56  0,8%  10,1%  18,9%  11,1%  7,1%
JSE Volatility Index (% increase)  21,13  8,9%  9,9%  14,5%  0,2%  2,8%
ALBI  829,70  0,8%  4,3%  8,5%  8,4%  8,9%
Repo Rate (% increase)  4,00%  6,7%  14,3%  14,3%  -16,0%  -10,6%

South African Market Cumulative Performance

South African Yield Curve

Offshore Markets*

Latest value Last mo. 3 mos. 1 year 3 yrs ann. 5 yrs ann.
FTSE All World Index  472,77  -4,9%  -3,6%  11,6%  13,4%  10,6%
FTSE Emerging Market Index  611,68  -0,4%  -2,8%  -5,9%  5,7%  5,9%
All Share Index (Kenya)  163,29  -1,9%  -8,2%  4,9%  2,8%  6,0%
All Share Index (Zambia)  6 048,17  -0,8%  22,5%  53,5%  2,1%  8,2%
All Share Index (Nigeria)  46 624,67  9,1%  10,9%  9,9%  15,1%  12,4%
All Share Index (Mauritius)  2 136,64  1,8%  0,6%  30,4%  -1,2%  2,6%
Composite Index (Ghana)  2 766,80  -0,9%  -3,4%  36,5%  4,4%  9,3%

Inflation***

Latest value Last mo. 3 mos. 1 year 3 yrs ann. 5 yrs ann.
CPI (ZAR)  175,65  0,6%  1,1%  5,5%  4,4%  4,3%
CPI (Kenya)  118,64  0,3%  1,7%  5,4%  6,2%  5,6%
CPI (Zambia)  344,90  2,6%  3,9%  15,1%  16,3%  12,5%
CPI (Nigeria)  411,52  1,8%  2,9%  13,9%  14,2%  13,8%
CPI (Mauritius)  113,28  0,2%  0,9%  5,8%  2,9%  3,1%
CPI (Ghana)  136,86  1,2%  2,7%  11,5%  9,4%  9,5%

Currencies (ZAR)

Latest value Last mo. 3 mos. 1 year 3 yrs ann. 5 yrs ann.
GBP  20,70  -4,3%  -0,6%  -0,4%  6,0%  4,0%
USD  15,38  -3,8%  1,2%  1,5%  5,1%  2,7%
EUR  17,30  -5,0%  -1,7%  -6,1%  4,5%  3,5%
MUR  0,35  -4,0%  -0,2%  -8,0%  -3,1%  -1,5%
KES  0,14  -4,1%  -0,8%  -1,6%  1,0%  0,9%
ZMW  0,85  -11,3%  -3,3%  20,3%  -8,5%  -8,9%
GHS  2,53  -4,9%  -0,4%  -4,0%  -2,1%  -4,0%
NGN  0,04  -4,6%  0,0%  -6,9%  -5,0%  -3,5%

African Stock Exchanges’ Cum. Performance

Rand Exchange Rate

* Indices are all reflected in their respective local currencies. FTSE Indices are quoted in USD. Data Source: Thomson Reuters
*** CPI is lagged by one month

Commentary

The JSE ended the month flat with a real return of 0.2% in local currency terms. The returns on other African markets considered were mixed with the Nigerian market (and the Mauritian market to a lesser extent) having a strong showing, whilst the other markets returned negatively in local currency terms.

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has increased the repo rate by a further 25 bps following a 25 bps increase in November 2021. South African inflation ended last year at the higher end of the SARB’s target range of 3 6%. The subsequent rate hikes are an effort to return inflation to the midpoint of the target range. Other countries considered operating at inflation levels above its longer-term (5 years) average include Zambia, Mauritius and Ghana.

The Rand strengthened against all currencies considered over the past month. Year on year, the Rand remains strong against most currencies considered barring only the Zambian Kwacha and the US Dollar

Contact us

Craig Falconer
CEO
T +27 11 038 3705
Kirchual Sauls
Actuarial Manager
T +27 11 038 3711
Legal Disclaimer: This document is intended for general information purposes only and should not be construed as advice or opinions on any specific facts or circumstances. The comments in this summary are based upon QED Actuaries & Consultants’ preliminary analysis of publicly available information. The content of this document is made available on an “as is” basis, without warranty of any kind. QED Actuaries & Consultants disclaims any legal liability to any person or organization for loss or damage caused by or resulting from any reliance placed on this content. QED Actuaries & Consultants reserves all rights to the content of this document.
views 820
0