Dashboard: 30 September 2021

Despite a poor showing by the JSE over the last quarter, All African markets considered outperformed the global emerging market index in local currency terms. The Rand weakened against all currencies considered over the last quarter.

South African Markets (ZAR)

Latest value Last mo. 3 mos. 1 yr 3 yrs ann. 5 yrs ann.
JSE ALL SHARE  64 281,77 -4,7% -3,0% 18,5% 4,9% 4,4%
JSE Volatility Index (% increase) 22,59 20,4% 12,5% -9,3% 7,7% 3,4%
ALBI 799,81 -2,1% 0,4% 12,5% 9,1% 8,5%
Repo Rate (% increase) 3,50% 0.0% 0,0% 0.0% -18,6% -12,9%

South African Market Cumulative Performance

South African Yield Curve

Offshore Markets*

Latest value Last mo. 3 mos. 1 year 3 yrs ann. 5 yrs ann.
FTSE All World Index  467,61 -4,2% -1,5% 25,5% 10,6% 11,1%
FTSE Emerging Market Index  622,89 -3,6% -7,6% 16,0% 6,8% 6,5%
All Share Index (Kenya)  177,04 -4,7% 2,0% 26,6% 5,8% 5,3%
All Share Index (Zambia)  4 986,00 7,3% 7,3% 30,8% -3,0% 2,9%
All Share Index (Nigeria)  40 221,17 2,6% 6,1% 49,9% 7,1% 7,3%
All Share Index (Mauritius)  2 010,58 2,9% 7,8% 33,3% -3,7% 1,9%
Composite Index (Ghana)  2 855,29 3,8% 8,0% 53,8% -0,3% 9,1%

Inflation***

Latest value Last mo. 3 mos. 1 year 3 yrs ann. 5 yrs ann.
CPI (ZAR) 172,96 0,4% 1,5% 4,7% 3,9% 4,4%
CPI (Kenya) 116,08 0,3% 0,8% 6,9% 5,4% 5,8%
CPI (Zambia) 330,73 -0,5% 0,2% 22,1% 16,0% 12,4%
CPI (Nigeria) 391,48 1,0% 2,0% 15,3% 13,4% 13,5%
CPI (Mauritius) 111,57 -0,1% 0,1% 5,3% 3,0% 2.9%
CPI (Ghana) 131,65 0,3% 1,9% 9,9% 9.3% 10.0%

Currencies (ZAR)

Latest value Last mo. 3 mos. 1 year 3 yrs ann. 5 yrs ann.
GBP 20,37 1,8% 3,1% -5,9% 3,3% 2,7%
USD 15,09 4,0% 5,8% -9,8% 2,2% 1,9%
EUR 17,48 1,9% 3,1% -11,0% 2,1% 2,5%
MUR 0,36 4,9% 6,6% -15,8% -4,9% -1,8%
KES 0,14 3,4% 3,3% -11,5% -0,9% -0,2%
ZMW 0,90 -1,1% 42,9% 7,7% -8,0% -8,0%
GHS 2,53 4,1% 3,6% -13,5% -5,2% -6,2%
NGN 0,04 4,3% 6,1% -16,3% -7,3% -4,0%

African Stock Exchanges’ Cum. Performance

Rand Exchange Rate

* Indices are all reflected in their respective local currencies. FTSE Indices are quoted in USD. Data Source: Thomson Reuters
*** CPI is lagged by one month

Commentary

Despite a poor showing by the JSE over the last quarter, All African markets considered outperformed the global emerging market index in local currency terms.
Year-on-year the local bond market underperformed relative to equities by 6%. However, over all other durations considered, the bond market provided higher returns.
The Zambian, Nigerian and Mauritian markets have seen notable inflationary increases in recent years. Over 5 years, inflation rates for each country considered are higher than the relevant market index (apart from South Africa), which is indicative of negative real returns.
The Rand weakened against all currencies considered over the quarter. Over the longer term (5-years), it is more of a mixed bag with the Rand strengthening against the Kwacha, Cedi, Naira, and the Mauritian Rupee and weakening against the other currencies.

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Craig Falconer
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Kirchual Sauls
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