Dashboard: 31 August 2021

The Rand strengthened against all currencies considered over the month except the Zambian Kwacha. The Zambian Kwacha has strengthened significantly over the last 3 months due to stronger copper prices, a formal Extended Credit Facility agreed with the IMF and more recently due to positive investor reaction to its national election.

 

South African Markets (ZAR)

 Latest valueLast mo.3 mos.1 yr3 yrs ann.5 yrs ann.
JSE ALL SHARE67,427.93-2.2%-0.8%21.5%4.7%5.0%
JSE Volatility Index (% increase)18.763,4%-1.2%-6.5%3.6%0.4%
ALBI817.121.7%3.7%14.8%10.0%9.6%
Repo Rate (% increase)3.50%0.0%0.0%0.0%-18.6%-12.9%

South African Market Cumulative Performance

South African Yield Curve

 

Offshore Markets*

 Latest valueLast mo.3 mos.1 year3 yrs ann.5 yrs ann.
FTSE All World Index488.252.3%4.0%26.7%12.3%12.2%
FTSE Emerging Market Index646.443.1%-4.4%17.9%7.8%7.5%
All Share Index (Kenya)185.714.6%9.3%33.0%3.5%6.6%
All Share Index (Zambia)4,647.11-0.2%8.5%20.9%-3.9%1.2%
All Share Index (Nigeria)39,219.611.7%2.0%54.9%4.0%7.3%
All Share Index (Mauritius)1,953.431.9%14.0%23.8%-4.2%1.5%
Composite Index (Ghana)2,750.371.2%13.6%48.9%-0.4%7.9%

 

Inflation****

 Latest valueLast mo.3 mos.1 year3 yrs ann.5 yrs ann.
CPI (ZAR)172.261.1%1.3%4.5%4%4.3%
CPI (Kenya)115.710.3%0.6%6.6%5.6%5.8%
CPI (Zambia)332.350.4%2.0%24.4%16.3%12.5%
CPI (Nigeria)387.510.9%2.0%15.8%13.3%13.4%
CPI (Mauritius)111.710.3%1.8%6.1%3.1%3.0%
CPI (Ghana)131.301.6%2.9%9.4%9.2%10.0%

 

Currencies (ZAR)

 Latest valueLast mo.3 mos.1 year3 yrs ann.5 yrs ann.
GBP20.00-1.4%2.4%-11.8%1.6%0.6%
USD14.51-0.4%5.8%-14.3%-0.4%-0.3%
EUR17.15-0.9%2.1%-15.3%0.2%0.8%
MUR0.34-1.7%1.4%-20.9%-7.6%-4.2%
KES0.13-1.5%3.7%-15.6%-3.2%-1.9%
ZMW0.9120.2%49.5%5.1%-13.9%-10.0%
GHS2.43-1.2%2.2%-17.9%-7.8%-8.6%
NGN0.04-0.3%5.6%-20.6%-9.8%-5.8%

African Stock Exchanges’ Cum. Performance

Rand Exchange Rate

* Indices are all reflected in their respective local currencies. FTSE Indices are quoted in USD. Data Source: Thomson Reuters *** CPI is lagged by one month

Commentary

With the exception of Kenya, all other African markets considered remained either flat or returned negatively in real local currency terms over the month.
The South African bond market outperformed the equity market over the month, generating an excess return of 3.96%. The trend persists over the longer term (i.e. 5 years) with the equity market lagging the bond market by 4.58%.
Inflation rates are continuing their upward trend across all markets considered. Over 5 years, inflation rates for each country considered are higher than the relevant market index (apart from South Africa and Kenya), which is indicative of negative real returns.
The Rand strengthened against all currencies considered over the month except the Zambian Kwacha. The Zambian Kwacha has strengthened significantly over the last 3 months due to stronger copper prices, a formal Extended Credit Facility agreed with the IMF and more recently due to positive investor reaction to its national election.

 


 

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Kirchual Sauls
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